Today, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) released the Energy Climate Scenario Catalogue version 2.0.
The Catalogue enables businesses to conduct strategic climate resilience assessments and explore transition pathways. It outlines the dependencies and uncertainties across various possible temperature and energy system outcomes.
The original version of the Catalogue was developed in 2022, responding to recommendations from the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure (TCFD). Since its launch, many companies leveraged the Catalogue in their TCFD disclosures for climate scenario analysis and scenario comparisons, e.g., BP and Mitsubishi.
The updated Energy Climate Scenario Catalogue v2.0 contains 17 scenarios from six leading scenario providers, with variables across investment, demand, emissions, capacity, cost, and price. The Catalogue allows for the navigation, comparison, and exploration of scenarios over time.
In version 2.0, scenarios were updated to reflect the latest scenario publications. Additional business-relevant variables were included, including regional disaggregation of car sales and disaggregation of commodity demand by end-use sector. The Catalogue will continue to be updated to incorporate future scenario developments.
Along with the Catalogue, the Climate Scenario Analysis Reference Approach report expresses the Energy Forum’s rationale, principles, process, and reflections regarding scenario analysis efforts. It explores the business use of climate scenario analysis and outlines principles for making choices using the Catalogue, with examples of use cases. The report also outlines allocating various public climate scenarios to three scenario reference families (aligned with 1.5°C, 2°C and current policies/BAU).
WBCSD convened BASF, BHP, BP, CLP, CRH, EDF, Enel, Engie, Equinor, Holcim, Iberdrola, and Skanska – the Energy Forum – to develop business-relevant approaches to climate scenario analysis. This work was conducted in response to recommendations from the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD), as well as guidance from International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS), and U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission.
Vivid Economics, part of McKinsey & Company, updated the Energy Climate Scenario Catalogue and provided core methodological and technical leadership.
This work continues to support companies in following TCFD, ISSB, ESRS and SEC recommendations to assess their strategic resilience by considering different climate-related scenarios. The resources updated today align with WBCSD’s strategic priorities in climate action and supporting member companies in engaging capital markets on ESG performance.
The Climate Scenario Analysis Reference Approach report is available here.